The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is about to reach its one week anniversary, longer than many had anticipated. The next step requires Hamas to release four female hostages, while Israel is to release more than 100 Palestinian terrorists. For a variety of reasons, this should strike people as a pretty lousy deal. Obviously, the ratio is horribly skewed in favor of Hamas. Then, too, are the “equivalences” of kidnapped hostages to convicted terrorists. How, then, did such a bad deal get struck?
It’s entirely understandable that Israelis whose loved ones were kidnapped and held hostage, often sex slaves, in Gaza would do anything to secure their return. Give up 1000 terrorists? Anything. End the war in Gaza? Anything. If it was your child/parent/spouse in captivity for all this time, would you put geopolitics ahead of their life?
This is even more true when there is blame for October 7th to go around, such as Netanyahu’s failure to be prepared for the attack and the Israeli government’s failure to maintain adequate operational control over its armed forces to prevent “accidents” that harmed innocents and, with better oversight, were avoidable.
And then there is the differences in how life is valued, with Hamas willing to sacrifice Gazans, those “women and children” so many harp about, as martyrs to their cause. Israel was not willing to sacrifice the lives of its citizens in like manner.
But what, you ask, about the hostages, as the continued fighting in Gaza prevented their release and put them at risk. That’s true to some extent, of course, but there was a longer term issue that arose from the reaction to the October 7th massacre. The hostages were taken as bargaining chips, when they weren’t being raped, for Hamas to trade for its terrorists held by Israel as convicted prisoners and to compel Israel to limit retaliation for their massacre.
The downside is that, if taking hostages works, it begets more hostage taking. If this was a test of Israel’s fortitude, then the ratio of four hostages for more than 100 terrorists demonstrates failure on Israel’s part to refuse to capitulate to the terrorists. After the ceasefire went into effect, Gazans celebrated Hamas’ monumental victory over Israel. Suddenly, they weren’t the poor victims of genocide, but full-throated Hamas supporters joyfully anticipating their next massacre of Israelis. It did not bode well for peace, but then, there was little to promote peace when the opposition’s goal remains your eradication.
It is anticipated that the hostage exchange during the first phase of the ceasefire will happen as planned, assuming Hamas can find the hostages kidnapped and there are enough alive to fulfill the turnover and otherwise doesn’t blow the ceasefire up. But the giveback will be hundreds of terrorists back into the mix, embraced in the bosom of Hamas’ promise to murder, rape and kidnap again. And you wonder why Israel wasn’t in a big rush toward peace so that more of their citizens could be raped and murdered.
And kidnapped. The ratio assures that there is a bright future for kidnapping by terrorists, and as happened here, the families will demand that Israel ignore wise policy for the sake of their loved ones’ return. And college students will march, encamp and disrupt for the freedom fighters who rape, murder and, yes, kidnap.
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Giving every freed terrorist a free pager would be too obvious, but the IDF could easily microchip them in order to follow them back to their burrows. Yes, at this point, it looks like a stupid deal, but there could be non-public factors that are actually contributing to the destruction of Hamas. The Israelis are allowed to release the freed terrorists into Gaza, where they might be unsafe upon any resumption of hostilities.
I think everyone expects Hamas to violate the agreement sooner or later, and when they do Israel won’t have Joe Biden trying to restrain them anymore. And, I’m surprised there were any hostages left alive at this point.
I only see two COA for Israel in the long run: The first would be military occupation along the lines of the MacArthur protectorate in Japan following WWII.
The second would be along the lines of “Carthago delinda est” in some form or another.
Not many are afforded the opportunity to build a new country. The Gazan’s had the chance. Let them bear the consequences of their actions.
I wish there was an alternative to Israeli occupation or salted earth, but I don’t see Gazans having the desire or wherewithal to oust Hamas from control. If the UN was still viable, perhaps it could occupy Gaza, but after the way Hamas infiltrated UNRWA, I can’t see that accomplishing anything either.
And a two state solution? Until one state doesn’t exist to destroy the other, that’s got no chance of working. What a mess.