Will Jerome Powell Go, Quietly Or Otherwise?

He’s like a walking, talking reminder of Trump’s monumental failure during his first term. Trump appointed Jerome Powell to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, and now Powell won’t do what Trump wants, with Trump calling his own appointee a “very stupid person.” The problem is that Trump wants the Fed to cut interest rates to 1% rather than the 4.25-5% it’s been since January.

Lowering the fed rate would lower the cost of borrowing money, both for the federal government and private borrowing. Lower rates make people happy, and they tend to thank the president for making them happy. But the Fed’s job isn’t to make people happy or to make the president look good. It’s to use the setting of interest rates as a tool to moderate inflation and unemployment. That’s the actual point as set forth in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

It’s for this reason that the Federal Reserve has what the Supreme Court specifically noted to be a unique structure, such that it’s not “implicated” in the other rulings giving extreme deference to the executive to fire and hire.

Finally, respondents Gwynne Wilcox and Cathy Harris contend that arguments in this case necessarily implicate the constitutionality of for-cause removal protections for members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors or other members of the Federal Open Market Committee. We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States.

Most would take the Supreme Court’s message as foreshadowing a resounding rejection of any attempt by Trump to fire Powell, so he can be replaced by a more compliant and agreeable Fed Chairman, assuming Marco Rubio doesn’t mind taking on yet another job. And yet, “knucklehead” Powell still won’t do as he’s told by the Big Cheese. Surely, there must be another excuse way.

But in recent days, the Fed’s renovations have emerged as a new line of attack.

“It’s possible there’s fraud involved with the $2.5, $2.7 billion renovation. This is a renovation — how do you spend $2.7 billion?” Mr. Trump said on Wednesday. He later added: “There could be something to that, but I think he’s not doing a good job. He’s got a very easy job to do. You know what he has to do? Lower interest rates.”

Section 10(2) of the Act states that the president can remove the chairman “for cause,” which is not quite as clear as some might think. Does that mean Powell can be removed for getting a speeding ticket, or only for an act of “gross malfeasance”? And if the latter, what constitutes gross malfeasance?

Mr. Trump and his top aides have homed in on the swelling costs and the inclusion of what they have described as luxury features, arguing that Mr. Powell has mismanaged the process and misled Congress about the extent of the plans.

How so? Who knows. It’s not as if Trump has provided any specifics beyond the Fed spending too much money on renovations, with “too much money” meaning more than Trump says it should cost. And how that makes it Powell’s fault remains a mystery beyond the fact that he’s the chair and, thus, responsible for any wrong, real or perceived.

Peter Conti-Brown, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said that “fraud and gross negligence must be bona fide” — and that, in the case of Mr. Powell, the president had not demonstrated that.

“It is clear to everyone watching this saga, and will be clear to the courts reviewing it after the fact, that President Trump is not interested in Powell’s management of the renovation project,” Mr. Conti-Brown continued. He added that the president “simply wants interest rates to be lower” and aims to find a way to “circumvent the law.”

That Trump’s sole purpose is to be rid of this turbulent chair is obvious to all, such that he can install an acolyte who will lower interest rates upon command and make Trump look like the glorious economic stable genius he wants people to believe he is, provides no assurance that the Supreme Court will not embrace his claim as long as he can muster a plausible excuse. Pretext though it may be, the Court could still hold that it’s within the president’s authority to fire a Fed chair “for cause,” leaving it to Trump to decide what constitutes cause.

Perhaps more to the point, Trump can always “Rosie” the chairman by proclaiming Powell to have engaged in gross malfeasance, sending a few guys in masks and guns to escort Powell from the building and challenging Chief Justice Roberts to stop them. No doubt Trump would prefer to do so with the blessing of SCOTUS, and no doubt the Court is painfully well aware of the cost of telling Trump that he can’t do something that he wants to do, that makes him look swell even if it’s idiocy that would result in economic disaster, but the pretense of avoiding the constitutional crisis and pretending the institutions remain intact when Congress, and to some extent the Supreme Court, have already become supplicants to the greater aggrandizement of the King.

Should Trump fire Powell, it would throw the United States economy into upheaval, and likely the world economy would follow until it locks arms with China as the safe haven. But for a brief and shining moment, Trump would be the victor and able to proclaim that he reduced interest rates to 1% (if not less), and hopefully nobody would remember that his attorney general refused to release the Epstein client list she had on her desk and, Trump said, nobody cares about.


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7 thoughts on “Will Jerome Powell Go, Quietly Or Otherwise?

  1. Ray

    Cutting interest rates to 1% will likely jumpstart serious inflation. I don’t think Mr. Powell is a very stupid person on this question. Now with respect to a 2.7 or 2.5 billion dollar renovation to the Fed facilities, what’s up with that?

  2. Jeff

    Even if he accomplishes this all of the chaos will likely be for naught as there are still 11 other voting members on the FOMC. I guess he could try to replace them as well.

  3. Blakely Scott Moore

    The phrase “for cause” could be interpreted very broadly. I imagine the administration can find something that at least appears to be “cause” without needing to defy the Court.

  4. B. McLeod

    Lowering interest rates would make some people happy, but it would also impair the asset allocation plans of dozens of pension systems and effect a wealth transfer from savers to borrowers. Trump seems to be basically representing his own business interests here, without regard to inflationary impacts or any other resultant harms.

    1. Jack

      Every single fiscal policy pushed by this administration has been aimed at short-term market gains at the expense of long term stability. Skyrocketing debt to cut taxes, this intent to slash interest rates, and broad untargeted deregulation are all massive wins for Wall Street that will see ever larger M&As (with the bonus of personal grifting a la Parmount), more stock buybacks, and soaring share prices. It’d be an absolute bonanza for PE and we’re all left holding the bag of debt with soaring inflation and the stagnation and eventual failing of cornerstone instutions like we are starting to see now with Intel, Boeing, and countless others from this unsustainable policy of paper growth.

  5. j a higginbotham

    Shouldn’t Trump want Powell to remain? In office, the Fed chair can be blamed for economic problems as well as being a convenient diversion. When Powell’s term expires, he can be replaced with a low interest rate yes-man. This would give an immediate boost and consequences could be delayed until after the midterm elections.

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