I remember going to the 1964 World’s Fair and taking the  GM Futuramaride that showed life in the future.  It was so cool, all the things that would change over time. Plus, my parents bought me one of those really nifty hats with the big ostrich feathers.  It was much better than what those fools in the 1930s thought fashion would look like in year A.D. 2000.



There are a host of blawgs that are dedicated to predicting the future of the lawyers.  As before, it’s not presented as merely a future of possibilities, but a reality upon which we are exhorted to stake our careers.  From Susan Cartier Leibel saying that Biglaw is dead and solo is the future, to Patrick Lamb saying that the billable hour is dead and value billing is the future, to Jordon Furlong saying that technology will render in-house handwork an anachronism and make lawyering a commodity.  Even within these seers of the future, there is dispute over whether virtual firms are the future, a future, or utter nonsense.

Whether those who inform us of what the future will be are oracles or profiteers, there are many who want to hitch their wagon to a rising star, whether because it furthers their personal wishes by offering a future that suits them or because they have failed in the past and need a new option. 

In the past, my challenges to those who claim that they know what the future holds has met with arguments, invariably misguided, about why it shouldn’t be this way.  That, of course, is irrelevant, since the future happens as it happens, not as a result of argument.  We aren’t wearing the clothing that 1930s designers thought appropriate, and our food isn’t grown on the bottom of the ocean.  No amount of argument will change this; it’s simply so.

There is nothing wrong with trying to divine the future, and using reason to do so.  But its somewhat disingenuous to promote the idea that anyone knows what the future will bring.  Very few have done so well, like Jules Verne and Gene Roddenberry, and in their cases the question is whether they predicted the future or the future met their imaginations and was guided by it.  With all due respect to my fellow blawgers, I don’t think they will be viewed as such visionaries that they will guide the future.

Some of these predictions strike me as nothing more than snake oil, with hard sell promoters sucking the weak and failed into their web with the promise of future success that comports with their silly dreams.  They are not dangerous because they posit a future that disrupts existing practice, but because they offer a promise to the desperate that they cannot keep.  Some promote the positives of solo practice while ignoring, if not overtly distorting, the risks, problems and negatives.  This disturbs me as it is targeted to some of the most vulnerable and desperate within the profession, and it’s flagrantly false and dishonest. 

Similarly, the entire cabal of work/life balance promoters offer a false god to those least capable of understanding why it’s a fool’s path.  They all have one thing in common, their availability for speaking engagements.  For the most part, they are failed lawyers who have reimagined themselves consultants and marketers.  It would funny as can be that people turn to failures to teach success, except that some actually do.  Of course, some claim that they were huge successes as lawyers, though they can’t offer any rational explanation why then they left the law to put red paint on their faces and sell themselves on Market Street. 

These oracles of the future of the law will get somethings right.  The law of averages dictates that some of their prophesies will come true, though when and how remains in doubt.  But denizens of the blawgosphere, desperately seeking solutions to their current miseries, would do well to be skeptical of prophets.  They don’t know anymore about the future than you do.

On the other hand, if you want to consider a change in your career path, with someone who will tell you the good, the bad and the ugly, I urge you to read Carolyn Elefant’s ebook, From Biglaw to Yourlaw, and should you decide to change your direction, pick up a copy of Carolyn’s book, Solo By Choice, clearly the best, and most honest, primer on going solo there is.

And as for predictions of the future of the legal profession, I have one to make.  The heart of what we do will continue to be represent our clients, first and foremost.  Neither commoditization, nor techno-outsourcing, nor work/life balance, will be accepted as a substitute for excellence.  Anyone who predicts otherwise will be proven wrong.  I stake my reputation on it.

I’m no Jules Verne either, but if you think the future of the law can be found in snake oil, I won’t cry for you when you crash and burn.