Already this morning, I’ve written three posts and, after due deliberation, decided not to post any of them. The first was about how the past excesses of criminal reform activists have made their calls for releasing prisoners to avoid COVID-19 from ripping through prisons ring hollow at a time when people care more for mom and dad than convicted felons.
The second was about the economic illiteracy of millennials who somehow connect COVID-19 with proof that capitalism is the disease and Bernie is the cure, and passionately expressing it on the corporation named Twitter on their China-made AAPL iPhones.
The third was about Mitt Romney’s idea of giving $1000 to every American adult to tide them through this economic dislocation.
But then, they all struck me as insignificant and petty, so I trashed them. Instead, I’ve decided to make this essentially an open thread. Maybe you have something better to discuss than I do today, because today, I’ve got nothing. I’m just not feeling it, so it’s up to you. I hope you’ve got better thoughts today, maybe an interesting tune by our resident minstrel (Dave), than mine.
Even if its just some fun, we could use it.
*Tuesday Talk rules apply.
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There once was a man from Nantucket,
Who one day said, “Aw, fuck it.”
. . . .
He cried in despair,
As he sat in his lair ,
. . . .
With hand cleaner stocked by the bucket…
My mission here has been accomplished.
Corona the virus is doomed.
Team SJ has sealed up its tomb.
Now Beijing shakes with fear,
Sells fake Mexican beer.
Your teamwork brought light to the gloom!
I have 19 aunts and uncles over the age of 70. Two of them have terminal cancer. Because I’ve been watching this from the beginning, it has felt like it’s happening in slow motion.
My wife’s grandfather is 96. I’ve been pushing for us to get lunch with him since early February. We did so last weekend, before there were any cases locally. He’s not terribly concerned. “I’m 96. There’s not much that couldn’t kill me!”
And then there’s my dad. He’s 64, but he’s been fighting a rare respiratory disorder over the last two years. He’s back to 80%, which is a huge relief, but damn this COVID crap attacks the lungs.
I’m sure there’s millions of Americans thinking the same stuff right now. I just wish they hadn’t waited until Friday to start thinking it.
A soft murmur travels through the crowd . . . dave . . . dave … dave . . . rising in volume and passion . . . Dave . . . Dave . . . Dave . . . to become a thunderous crescendo . . . DAVE! . . . DAVE! . . . DAVE! . . . DAVE! . . . DAVE! . . .
Don’t have anything new…but i think this one might help counter the current vibe…
(PS: been feeling better lately [go figure?]…which translates to; i don’t make as many ‘worn out hand’ mistakes and i have better control of my voice…so i may eventually redo all the stuff on my channel, but i got do some Amish taxi stuff this morn, so stay tuned…I’ll need the views when i take the old ones down)
AND NOW….for something completely different. Please take the time and read this, since your all sittin’ at home with your thumbs in your ass.
https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/does-2019-coronavirus-exist
Note; This article is about 180 degrees opposite to the ‘crazy guys’ vid i posted the other day. ( Clif openly admits he’s a paranoid schizophrenic. Combine that with high function, and, well, huge grain of salt..) Please understand that i have no problem entertaining extreme positions, and i do have the ability to consider both without deciding one or the other HAS to be true.
I’ve been intentionally riding this ‘alternative viewpoint teeter-totter’ for a couple of weeks now, and I’m not at all embarrassed to say I’m way more on board with what this article says than with Uncle Clif’s ideas. ( although his DIY health advice is mostly correct…i was doing almost all of it long before i ran across him)
I understand this article here is challenging a huge leviathan of monolithic thinking. It’s the equivalent of Bruno and Galileo vs. the catholic church. It makes one think “but how could so many ‘professionals’ be so wrong?”… Its called belief. Its called confirmation bias. It’s called Dunning-Kruger…….remember the NEJoM guy that said 70% percent of published studies were NOT reproducible?….need i go on?…Go read about the battle between Pasteur and Beaucamp.
And last, but not least, meditate on this question…”How the fuck did the human race survive before the pill-pushing, techno-magick, so-called “healthcare”, that over half the world still can’t afford, existed?”
Rant over. Let the ‘tinfoil hat’ snark begin. GD Out.
Thanks so much for that link. Interesting information. What would be the purpose of imposing quarantine if the “disease” is a myth? Just asking, for a friend…
Most of my “rabbit hole” kind of research started from looking into alternatives for taking care of my health without participating in the system. When it comes reasons or motivations that health things may have been suppressed, or false paradigms turned into ‘settled science’, it’s pretty obvious….it’s the same reason i explored the alternatives, which is of course, money. Duh.
As for ‘other’ reasons to quarantine? …i ain’t goin’ there…too many rabbit holes, not enough time.
Maybe your ‘friend’ should get a computer and an internet connection.
https://youtu.be/2k1uOqRb0HU
just wanted to say, i enjoy reading your stuff. everyday. (sign, sign, everywhere a sign)
no need to let this post.
ctl
what is the equitable way to shut down the country? everyone is impacted differently. no interest? no tax? no rent? the government is going to pick winners and losers.
I had hoped for a better excuse to post this one, but you asked:
I am
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5jkAkm4JmM&w=665&h=499%5D
that the answer to your question is
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uztPofLSkdU&w=665&h=374%5D
So there!
SHG,
For all practical purposes, our court has shut down. My chambers staff will work from home as will many if not all other chambers. No trials. No hearings save video conferencing. Only two people in our Lincoln clerk’s office at any one time. Probation officers at home too. This ban extends through April 3 and probably beyond.
My former law partner, now a state district judge out west is doing something similar. My long standing doc elbow-bumped me yesterday as a greeting and I almost smashed him in the mouth. The stock market is worse than 1929.
I wish I had something to say that was snarky, wry or insightful. I don’t. The thing that really scares me is that I don’t give a shit.
All the best.
RGK
Finally the courts are safe for young, female law clerks with ivy league degrees!
“It’s hard to believe that we even have to post this,” police in Newport, Oregon wrote. “Do not call 9-1-1 just because you ran out of toilet paper. You will survive without our assistance.”
We all have our crosses to bear.
There will probably be a spate of sewer backups in large urban centers from people trying to flush what they end up substituting for toilet tissue.
Already happening in the U.K., which I’m sure you knew already.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/uks-sewage-system-in-danger-of-gridlock-from-toilet-paper-substitutes-coronavirus
I had not seen that, but the truth of that matter is that it happens in the UK on a regular basis, so it may or may not actually be linked to any impact of the coronavirus. A few years ago, they had to clear a fatberg from the London sewers that was damned near as big as a whale.
Just the same, be careful out there, Judge.
For anyone with pets: your furry friends can’t get COVID-19 and you can’t get it from contact with them. If they require care please take them to a veterinarian. Many clinics/offices are offering curbside pickup and drop-off services for those who are wary of going into waiting areas.
I’m seeing horror stories surface about pets being surrendered and euthanized over misinformation. Don’t be one of those people.
Does anyone on here know anyone with the virus? Has anyone in any jail or prison in this country gotten the virus? More and more I’m thinking our reaction to the virus is worse than the virus would have been.
We know the first two cases here in Georgia. They stayed in their own home and are recovering, if not fully recovered by this point. They did such a good job that the two other members of their household did not catch the virus. But they were able to do that because they tested and knew which family members had the virus and which didn’t.
The problem with the current “shutdown” is that it is not accompanied by enough testing. Yes, social distancing helps to slow the spread, but if there are carriers still going to the grocery store, restaurants, and parties at Chuck E. Cheese (yes, the parking lot was full when I drove past on Saturday), the virus will continue to spread. That only is going to lead to longer and longer shutdowns.
However, if there was widespread testing, the carriers could isolate themselves completely during the shutdown, the rest of us could engage in social distancing, and this would blow over in a couple of weeks. But without more testing, it’s going to keep getting worse.
Here’s the catch: if you do enough to contain the virus, it will look like an overreaction because you succeeded at containing the virus. If you don’t do enough, it explodes out of control. There really is no middle ground, as the difference between “enough” and “not enough” is miniscule.
Yesterday’s statement from WHO Director General Ghebreysus is worth a read. Here’s an excerpt:
“In the past week, we have seen a rapid escalation of cases of COVID-19. More cases and deaths have now been reported in the rest of the world than in China. We have also seen a rapid escalation in social distancing measures, like closing schools and cancelling sporting events and other gatherings.”
“But we have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing – which is the backbone of the response. Social distancing measures can help to reduce transmission and enable health systems to cope. Handwashing and coughing into your elbow can reduce the risk for yourself and others. But on their own, they are not enough to extinguish this pandemic. It’s the combination that makes the difference. As I keep saying, all countries must take a comprehensive approach.”
“But the most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate. You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.”
“We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test. Test every suspected case. If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms, and test those people too.”
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—16-march-2020
The Spanish flu in 1919 killed 675,000 in the US but the economy and the stock market barely noticed. So far 94 people have died in the US and the stock market has crashed and the economy is entereing a recession. More people are going to be hurt by our reaction than would have been hurt if we had acted normally. There is no way to prove this, but it is possible more people will die from being out of work or losing their savings or not being able to get medical treatment for other diseases than would have died from the corona virus.
Yes. A local doctor has the virus and is recovering. Her son plays board games with my son. Neither of the boys are showing symptoms. We have been in self quarantine since Saturday. Our neighbors are great and we are in good shape considering.
There hasn’t ever been adequate testing in the U.S and many other places, so how would we really know whether someone has the virus. The confirmed cases don’t tell the full picture. We are flying blind.
Please keep in mind, the number of reported cases is far below the actual number of infected people, I mean, very dramatically below, like maybe as much as 50 times. I think no one believes it to be less than 10 times.
“It’s only Quarantine is it’s in the Quarante region of France. Otherwise, it’s just sparkling isolation.”
– Unknown
Wife: “Did you ever sleep with any women before you met me?”
Husband: “No. Every one of them kept me awake all night long.”
Husband, with a wink: “What do you like most about me, my handsome face or my sexy body?”
Wife: “Your sense of humor.”
Believe it or not, I think of this song often.
There will be poor always
Pathetically struggling
Look at the good things we’ve got.
Once in a while you get shown the light
In the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Is anyone else afraid of people starving during the pandemic? All I can see is the economy shrinking drastically as events are cancelled, businesses are closed, flights are grounded, and people lose work. Worst of all fewer people will have the spare change to hire me to sue their asshole neighbor if they even see their neighbor anymore.
I might not be so worried if we had an actual safety net paid for by the uber-wealthy for those who will definitely need it. Yes, I’m calling for the redistribution of wealth. No, it’s not as bad as it would seem. No one will listen to me and it will never happen anyway.
This will be a damn horror show. Mitt needs to hurry it up with the dole already.
There could definitely be food deprivation issues. The vast majority of folks in our society today have nothing in savings and live hand-to-mouth. Any significant economic disruption will be enough to screw them, and this one looks to be a real ball-buster.
I admire the “no, fuck you dad” mentality Americans bring to the table. To my mind, it’s a big part of what makes you creative, indomitable, and free. But just this once, in response to the increasingly harsh measures being taken by governments in the States (and abroad), I don’t think it’s likely to help.
This isn’t a crisis the response to which is motivated by social psychology, or Keynesian economics, or streitbare Demokratie, or any other trendy and fun-to-challenge philosophy. Quarantines, curfews, “social distancing,” etc. are all being done because of simple math: This outbreak will be manageable when RxS = 1, where R is the number of people an infected person will likely infect in turn, and S is the share of the population that’s still susceptible.
I know some American outlets, like NRO, have reported that Germany’s leadership thinks 60% of its population will get COVID-19. Maybe you’ve seen that claim? The reason behind it is that 2.5 looks like a pretty good estimate for R right now, and 1/2.5 – S – is .4. And S won’t be .4 until .6 of the population has gotten sick.
So this is something for which we, and Americans, need to prepare. It’s possible to drop R, up to a point: You can break it down into parts that you can’t really influence (like how infectious the disease is) and parts that you can (like with how many people patients come into contact). But in acknowledgement that S will still be lower than we’d like, these crisis management tools are also supposed to stagger when people get sick, so medical resources aren’t overwhelmed by a sudden spike in cases.
Why do I mention all this, which you probably already know? Well, in part to emphasize that you guys really need to do some testing so you can try to assess R and S for yourselves. Take Jack Ma’s offer. But also to say that the usual quasi-libertarian impulses – which I share! – aren’t necessarily good guides to behavior here. By all means, stock up on toilet paper and guns. I do think it’s funny how people’s inner Second Amendment enthusiast comes out in times of crisis. But what rebelling against quarantines will do in a statistical sense is kill some old people, and maybe use up ventilators that are needed to treat young people with respiratory illnesses.
If you’re going to make the point – as I’ve seen conservatives and libertarians doing – that states and localities are better suited to managing public-health scares than are the feds, then great. But please don’t tweet it from a crowded restaurant or a fucking Smurf party.
That’s me on the lower left.
David, I miss you.
All the best.
RGK
I’m sorry I didn’t see this, Judge. I missed you too. I’ll try and be around a little bit more, if only to fix our host’s horrible typos, I mean, benefit from the wisdom of my elders.
That’s “dad” to you, you little shit.
The Junker attitude is odd, but keep it up with the accurate information. Thinking of our neighbors is important. Get vaccinated, be responsible, wash your hands, don’t be stupid. It’s nice when people are more socially responsible, right?
I’ve only heard back from a third of my students about our transition to online-only. My class doesn’t “officially” start back until Friday, but damn, I think universities are going to have to figure out how to deal with a huge percentage of students ghosting on their classes.
But in good news, with the CDC recommending no meetings larger than 10 people, the Gabbard campaign is still going strong!
that’s easy. They ghost, they don’t learn the material and the fail the assignments and tests.
Many (if not most or all) U.S. law schools have shifted to an online format for the remainder of this semester. This is probably expected at this point. What I did not expect is that several law schools have decided to forgo letter grades for this semester, utilizing a Pass/Fail system rather than the standard letter grading system. I am not sure if this a smart move or not. Some are wondering if other schools will follow suit.
I get the feeling that this is a move that only a few schools at the top of the rankings could get away with (their students may be able to lean on the school’s rank when looking for employment), but that it wouldn’t be a smart move for other schools. Employers will (I assume) want to know how the student did in class, and an absence of info is not good; this will be especially true if your students are competing with students from other law schools who have decided that their students would receive actual letter grades. Granted, I am only guessing here, but I feel it’s safe to guess that the employers who care about grades would rather hire a student who has succeeded to their satisfaction rather than a wildcard.*
But I don’t know. There seem to be several good arguments both for and against the move. From what I hear, only a few law schools have made this move so far (most of them at the top of the rankings), and it is only speculative if other schools will follow.
*It is, however, the second semester of the year, so there are some grades out there already.
I think it is important to point out something very dangerous going on in the media.
The mainstream media has apparently self censored to remove all references to “Wuhan virus”, “Chinese virus” and so forth.
The claim is Asian people will be attacked if it is used. I am not seeing much evidence for it, maybe it is true.
The importance of calling this by a Chinese name – and more than that, actively blaming China, is that all evidence is the disease emerged – went from an animal to a human – in the Wuhan wild animal market.
These markets are known to be extremely dangerous because the conditions for an animal disease to start infecting humans are present. It was in an animal market the SARS virus emerged – and, for a few months, the Chinese government shut them down, them claimed it was not due to the market – it was – and opened them again.
In terms of social usefulness/need vs risk, there is probably no economic activity which does as much harm for it’s benefit than these wild animal markets – no one needs bats for food. Or snakes, pangolins, etc.
So, we need to both identify China as the source of this worldwide disaster, AND we need to put the pressure on them to permanently close the stores which sell exotics. Without identifying them as being at fault, pressure will not be exerted. They are using disinformation and shaming – “racism” to silence their critics . We need to reject that