For the past few months, criminal law reform activists have been losing their minds over the fact that crime has become a huge issue in the midterm elections for three reasons.
First, while violent crime rates have increased over some of the lowest crime years in decades, they remain far lower than they were in the bad old days of the 1990’s crack epidemic.
Second, violent crime rates are no higher in blue states than red, and in most cases, they are substantially higher in red states like Oklahoma than blue like New York and California.
Three, the increase in violent crime has been blamed on criminal law reforms and progressive prosecutors when the statistics make it overwhelmingly clear that there is no correlation. Indeed, stats show just the opposite, that violent crime is higher in jurisdictions where there are tough-on-crime prosecutors.
And yet, crime has become a huge issue in the midterms, seized upon by Republican candidates and, largely ignored or denied by Democrats. Even in one of the safest blue races around,
House rating change: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) moves from Lean D to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Dems admit the DCCC chair is now in serious danger in #NY17. Full analysis: https://t.co/89bvezbNuw pic.twitter.com/ncljBkSfZw
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 24, 2022
And his opponent has been working this hard.
This trend has been attributed to many things by activists, from media reporting that crime is out of control when it’s not to putting whatever the latest act of horrific violence on the front page so as to create the appearance of rampant crime. Others argue that much of the fault lies with the activists for pounding away at ridiculous nonsense Defund the Police, Abolish Prisons, denying that crime is happening at all or being social justice or racial apologists for crime when people are clearly being harmed.
Yet another issue which hasn’t received much attention is that the nature of violent crime may be changing. Back in the bad old days, crime was connected to drugs and had an understandable motive. Much of the crime that makes the 6 o’clock news seems to be random violence, some nutjob killing some person for no apparent reason on a subway platform or punching an old woman on the street who just happened to be walking by. When violence becomes untethered from motive, like revenge or financial, it means it can neither be avoided nor anticipated, and that gives rise to a different type of concern than staying away from street corners where crack was sold.
Crime has become one of the dominant fears driving the campaigning and voting in the upcoming midterm elections. It’s obvious why the Republicans are playing the crime card, as it works for them and bolstering both fear of crime and the perpetual assumption that more cops, more prosecutions and longer sentences are the way to prevent crime, even if these fixes have been tried for decades and produced only full prisons and no change on the street.
Has the window of opportunity to reform criminal law slammed shut, and we’re now heading full steam to the old tough-on-crime days that served only to get more kids tossed against walls for no good reason? Why is the perception that violent crime is now out of control driving the midterm campaigns? Have the reforms put into place by activists with far more passion than understanding of the legal system given rise to this swing in the pendulum, or would this have happened anyway?
Violent crime is certainly up, even though not connected to whether states are blue or red, but still far below its worst days. Yet, people believe the sky is falling, just as they have with any number of issues over the past few years. Is this about crime at all, or about our need to be hysterical about something horrible and crime is just the latest flavor of hype?
*Tuesday Talk rules apply.
Discover more from Simple Justice
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I believe the current hype cycle around crime is, like it has been so many times in the past, a cynical, repetitive strategy to move behavior. In short, politicians (and the media) lie. To illustrate this fact claim, enter Steve Ross, candidate for North Carolina House District 63. Steve has been caught in multiple lies that attempt to paint his opponent as soft on crime. In a recent attempt, that would be comical if not so fraudulently deceptive, his opponent, Rep. Ricky Hurtado, was photoshopped into a shirt that says “defund the police” when he was actually wearing his own campaign tee while picking up trash in his neighborhood.
As I’m certain any good trial lawyer knows, there are very few ways to reliably move people’s behavior the way you want. Fear is, unfortunately, one of the most effective, though I doubt it would be tolerated in a courtroom. (In case any SJ readers don’t know, I am not a lawyer.) But out in the wild, unruly world of politics, you can say just about anything if it will get you or your favored candidate elected.
As for the media’s complicity in the big lie, that crime is out of control and SOMETHING MUST BE DONE…Way smarter people than I have said much about this problem many, many times in the past. As we all know, if it bleeds, it leads. It is an unfortunate coincidence that every two years the media’s ongoing obsession with clicks, likes, and subscribes happens to align with the goals of politicians.
So, will this get more kids thrown up against the wall? I suppose the broader question is, is this phenomenon, all this lying, and fraud, which is actually business as usual, bad for society? My answer is, yes, it is very bad. Very, very bad.
Politicians lie and distort — YES. But videos of gangs of teens rampaging through stores, mentally deranged individuals pushing people on to subway tracks, persons driving a vehicle into a crowd of people, and other such videos of unknown individuals openly committing crimes don’t lie. They are not staged. Among the most alarming type of incidents in my view is individuals brandishing handguns robbing diners sitting outside at restaurants, and at times going into a restaurant to do the robbing. I don’t ever recall these kinds of crimes were becoming common. And may crimes are no longer reported because police don’t bother responding so they can even be reported, let along neither police nor prosecutors will do anything regarding an individual who committed a crime. It’s not the murder which are so disturbing. It’s the randomness. Much of the public feels threatened — rightly and justifiably so in my view. People are changing their habits. One example in my case, is now I always choose to walk on streets where there is more traffic and more people about. I used to enjoy quieter and off-the-beaten-track walks, but no longer. It’s not safe.
As our host mentioned, in reality, crime is only up incrementally over the short term and still dramatically low over the long term.
However, it seems to me, that fear and anxiety are perfectly rational responses to the consumption of content containing violence and mayhem. However, when you allow your fears to change your behavior, particularly when they are disconnected from reality, you have a different kind of problem. I recommend self-defense classes, as they greatly improve confidence and, as an ancillary benefit, cardio health. You might also consider changing the proverbial channel. I am plugged into the same internet you are but I am not seeing this flood of violent content, because I don’t seek it out. The algorithms are feeding you what they think you want to see based on your behavior, you know.
Isnt that what the ostrich does?
No, I don’t think so. The proverbial ostrich puts its head in the sand to hide from reality. Henry, in changing his behavior, is hiding from a distortion of reality.
Coincidentally, real ostriches are incredibly dangerous when frightened so if you ever encounter one in the real world, I wouldn’t try to scare it. They have killed lions.
“Henry is hiding from a distortion of reality.” ???? I’m seeing gangs of young persons rampaging through stores. Where’s the distortion. Various sorts of violence, much of it repeated and imitative, and some of it novel such as a group of persons dressed up in green goblin suits or something of the sort assault passengers on a subway car (probably NYC) are attributable to instability various reasons (e.g., the long-running riots in Portland). I find you efforts to cancel me strange. “Hiding from a distortion of reality”/ Most people would grasp what I’m saying is how I am responding to what I see and what I sense as simple common sense; or if one wants to get fancy about it, an adjustment to present realities.
So Henry watches the network news and you watch Joy Reid. Hey, whatever makes you not feel like a fool, amirite?
Have a lovely day, Miles.
I saw what you did there.
Has anybody ever won an election with happy talk?
Hope and change, Howl.
Point taken.
How people feel about crime has a lot to do with how it is presented in the media. IMHO crime is a larger political issue than the statistics might suggest because of the absolute flood of online videos of criminals rampaging through stores where we all shop. Social media is awash in visuals of criminal activity occurring on a large scale with no apparent consequences. We’ve all seen them on many occasions and such scenes are terrifying and undermine one’s normal sense of security. Stories about chronically understaffed police forces and the difficulty of recruiting new trainees into police work also work to create a sense of looming danger. Not to mention the general public disregard for “experts” who calmly reassure us that, “no no, crime is no worse than ever” while their local stores are closing due to unsustainable theft losses.
The politicians and media who specialize in social panics based on lies and salacious reporting are going to have a real hard time pushing back against a much more pervasive issue by telling people…not to trust what the politicians and media are telling them.
For many folks it’s not primarily based on statistical narratives – whether good faith or bad – but what they see happening in their local community and to people they know, compared with the political messaging they see about it. They do see more these days because of apps and tabloid/social media, but if getting a doorbell cam is disturbing because you see things you didn’t before, waving away the problem as nothing new isn’t going to make people feel the comfort of ignorance again.
Imagine the howls if people made arguments about racism like they do about crime. It would be considered a five alarm fire of racist apologia. “Sure I admit it’s going in the wrong direction but it’s not the worst ever, and we need to reflexively defend perpetrators from the rogues who claim to be fighting it, and some of it is understandable if not justified, so we shouldn’t make it a big issue” would be (has been, in fact) a campaign message with pretty selective appeal.
The idea that violent crime rates are no higher in blue states than red is a left-wing talking point. The idea that violent crime rates are substantially higher in blue states than red is a right-wing talking point. Who is telling the truth and who is lying? It appears that both sides are cherry-picking statistics to mislead their flocks of believers. If you look at shitholes like NY, SF and LA, crime is obviously out of control and has become substantially worse since their Soros-funded district attorneys were elected. If you average those shitholes with the large number of blue areas where crime is not out of control, then the problem looks less bad. If you focus on the shitholes under the influence of Fox News, then it looks like the only solution is to vote for Republicans to stop the carnage. If you focus elsewhere under the influence of MSNBC, then it looks like you should continue to vote for Democrats, because things are actually fine, and “abortion!” As usual, the politicians care only about being elected, and will say anything to get votes. At this point, anyone who still believes any of the garbage that spews from either side of our corrupt establishment is hopelessly clueless.
“Is this about crime at all, or about our need to be hysterical about something horrible and crime is just the latest flavor of hype?”
Both. The type of crime is changing (i.e., can’t be safe by just avoiding the corners where crack is sold…), but we’re also REALLY good at hysteria and succumbing to The Syllogism. The perception that crime is coming “untethered from motive” is making people nervous and politicians are pretty good at not wasting a crisis.
The stats don’t show that crime is out of control, but the perception is that no one is coming to save you. This reinforces the idea that you should be prepared to defend yourself and yours. Let’s be careful out there…
I think there are multiple issues shaping perception and experience. The first is the types of crime which appear to have shifted from the largely intramural contest between drug dealers to mass scale shoplifting and random violence including racial violence primarily targeting Asians and the visibly Jewish. This brings crime out of the ghettos and into the nice neighborhoods where it has a greater impact on the Twittering class. The other issue is an apparent trend of violent crimes being committed by individuals who were either awaiting trial for a violent crime or were released early from prison after being convicted. Finally some areas have genuine increase in violent crime. I live in a city of 90,000 which averaged a homicide every other year before 2020 and has had 2-3 homicides every year starting in 2020.
I live in a college town in Oregon and everyone feels that the community and state are decaying even though the crime is non-violent (except in Portland). Republicans are feeling good about their electoral prospects for the first time in decades.
My neighborhood was crime free and I used to leave my door unlocked. I have been the victim of vandalism three times in last two years. My 80 year neighbor installed a fence after a theft. Cars and catalytic converters are being stolen. I could see a homeless camper in the park behind my house. The streets are filthy. Our state schools have dropped to the bottom ten. Fires are burning our forests.
People are on edge after years of living in an idyllic town. Progressive professors are trying to decide whether to vote for law and order or stay true to ivory tower leanings.
Do politicians lie to get elected? Why yes they do, and have done so as long as there have been elections. Most voters realize this.
Does the media lie? Why yes they do, and have done so as long as it brought them readers/viewers. It does seem more blatant in the past few years, but that could be an artifact of overweighting more recent events in your minds eye.
Has crime increased? We have no way of knowing as the FBI crime statistics are no longer reliable due to the change in methodology and certain states/cities not reporting for last year. I’d say probably yes however.
Has the nature of crime changed? This I think is the source of anxiety. What we see reported and what we personally witness in our communities includes much more random crime than before – ‘safe’ neighborhoods aren’t as much – as it’s hard to avoid the trouble spots. Uncertainty causes anxiety.
Have the results of crime changed? Oh yes. This I think is the big one. No longer does the average person have reason to believe that criminals will be punished, or in any way prevented from committing more crimes. We can argue if long prison sentences reform criminals, but it’s hard to argue that they can’t commit more crimes while in prison. No bail, alternatives to incarceration, or prosecutors simply not bringing charges for many types of crime, have resulted in many publicized instances of repeat crimes by the criminals. This people see, and represents a break down in the social contract.
I’ve been out of the LE “business” for 12 years, but friends who are still in have made anecdotal observations to me that buttress Gus’s points about the increased randomness and expanded geographic reach of crime in their jurisdictions. Also, most CO’s will argue against the statement that persons can’t commit crimes while in prison, but do worry about the effects of decreased incarceration on the communities in which they live due to woke initiatives and prosecutors.
Whether these observations are seen as being made by those trying to cling to a cush job or by those with direct knowledge is up to the public to decide and weigh accordingly. In my experience politicians are rarely helpful in that effort.
“Nearly 40% of all law enforcement agencies — including in the nation’s two largest cities — failed to submit any data to the feds, ” (ref NY Post) or “But unfortunately, what happened as a result is about 40% of agencies didn’t make that switch, so they couldn’t report their data to the FBI anymore.” (ref NPR). With a 40% gap in reporting (including NYPD and LAPD), any increase in raw numbers is more than likely to be significant.
Fewer crimes are being reported because of a sense that nothing will be done. Case in point: retail stores stop reporting theft long before they make the decision to close. Once the decision is made to close, does anyone think that any theft is reported?
It’s a wonderful irony that abortion was supposed to be the “hot button’ in this election when it has it become crime. The Republicans have been saved from their own ineptitude.
“Violent crime is certainly up, even though not connected to whether states are blue or red, but still far below its worst days.”
Scott is right that the victims are more often random. I’d add the past victims during the worst days moved away to the safer suburbs, and the new victims are their children who grew up in the same suburbs and won’t accept the more dangerous cities.