Not too long ago, many people believed the “predictions” of Nostradamus that the world would end in 2025, and that it would come from war in the middle east, where certain nations were bent on the destruction of the decadent west. Whether or not one was inclined to buy into the metaphysical, there was good reason to fear war in the middle east. One thing that was clear to all, at least then, was that Iran, now under the religious rule of an Ayatollah and the primary supporter of radical Islamic terrorism, could not be trusted to have nuclear weapons.
Was Iran on the verge of having nuclear weapons? Who knows? Bibi Netanyahu has been saying so for years. Whether he was right or wrong, and that Iran’s weapons program was set back by Israeli intervention, is unknown. Much of this, by its nature, is unknown, which is a huge issue following George W. Bush’s assurances that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Trust, once squandered, is lost and hard to find again.
What we do know is that Israel acted upon its belief, or at least its claimed belief, that Iran was very close to having nuclear weapons. There’s a strong argument in its favor, given that enrichment of uranium at Fordo was up to 60%, which exceeds any civilian use and serves only for the ultimate making of a bomb. And if Iran was enriching uranium for the purpose of civilian power, why do it in secret and in a deep underground bunker, built to be as immune from attack as possible?
Whether right or wrong, Israel acted upon it after half-hearted efforts at diplomacy failed. To be fair, time kept passing as diplomacy went nowhere fast, so it makes sense that there either had to be a diplomatic breakthrough or time would run out.
So Israel took it upon itself to act, as Israel would surely be the primary target of Iran should it have a nuclear weapon and decide to use it. Would Iran use it? Who knows, but it would definitely alter the dynamic of Iran’s role in the middle east, if nothing else. While the other Arab countries in the middle east may feign support for Iran to avoid becoming a target of its ballistic missiles, it’s impossible to believe that the Saudis, Emirates, Qatari, Lebanese, and Syria under its new regime, aren’t thrilled to have Israel do the dirty work of impairing Iran’s ability to make a bomb that would elevate Iran to the position of dictating politics in the region.
Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities may have seriously impaired Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons, but it fell short of being capable of destroying the Fordo facility. President Trump filled the gap by sending in B-2 bombers with the bunker buster (or MOPs, Massive Ordance Penetrators, if you prefer) bomb that had the capacity to destroy the Fordo facility. Whether or not it worked, and whether the facility is “obliterated” as he claimed, is not yet known. It may be true, or it may be another “Mission Accomplished” moment.
But if there ever was a time for the United States, being the nation that possessed the munitions needed to destroy Fordo, to drop the bomb, this was it. Trump was right about one thing, that Iran can never have nuclear weapons. Following on Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, this was the time to complete the job, to put as much of an end to Iran’s nuclear aspirations as could be done.
Was it a violation of the 1973 War Powers Resolution? That requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of sending American troops into conflict, and withdrawal if Congressional approval is not obtained within 60 days. While only Congress has the power to declare war, per se, it has given the president the authority to act within the prescribed limits, but only when the US is under attack. Did Trump violate the law by sending in bombers, even if it was otherwise the right thing to do?
But will this provocative act now bring war to the United States? Will Iran begin firing short range missiles at American troops in the region in retaliation for the bombing, and recognition of America’s having put itself into this conflict between Israel and Iran? Was this the start of a war Congress didn’t authorize, a start caused by a choice made by the President of the United States and not thrust upon us like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine?
Trump’s speech following the bombing, ignoring his “I just want to say, we love you, God” idiocy, made the point that this could end with the bombing or this could be the start of war. The next move is Iran’s. This could be about eliminating Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons, something that Iran understood whether it cared or not, or war.
Discover more from Simple Justice
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Iran has made war on Israel and the United States for the past 47 years. Will Iran retaliate? They would be retaliating regardless of any actions taken by the United States. Iran is not interested in diplomatic solutions. You can’t negotiate with parties that are unwilling to engage in negotiations. It’s amazing to hear the talking heads on the news talk about the provocative acts of Israel and the United States. It’s been the other way around for decades. If anything, both Israel and the United States have shown remarkable restraint.
“ This could be about eliminating Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons, something that Iran understood whether it cared or not, or war.”
That choice is Iran’s to make. They’ve had several opportunities to abandon their nuclear enrichment program and refused. They now have the choice of peace or more conflict. Along the line of “…an offer you can’t refuse.” Is “You can have gold or lead.” (Get rich or die). We tried gold (cash) under Obama and Biden to no effect. Now it’s the explosive equivalent of lead. We’ll see if that works.
Iran has been at war with us since 1979, this was overdue IMO.
Yupe, the Shah was a peach.
I’ve read your comments in the past, and can’t remember a time when you contributed anything of value to the post or the comments. They range from benign trollish to just plain dumb.
Now this comment, which I can’t, for the life of me, understand why you bothered to post it. So I thought to myself, maybe I’m missing something. I should ask. So, what purpose did you intend to be served by this comment?
Whether we started a war or ended a war, it seems likely we avoided a nuclear Iran, if only for a while. There is an excellent case for “Another war in the Middle East” being preferable to a nuclear Iran.
I also wanted to emphasize and add to a point you made: Iran was producing and storing 60% enriched Uranium.
For context: most (uranium based) nuclear power is generated using uranium enriched to about 5%. Some advanced reactor designs or esoteric applications like nuclear propulsion use uranium enriched to around 20%. (These are called High Assay Low Enriched reactors if you want to Google them)
Weapons require around 90% enriched Uranium.
So, keeping a stockpile of 60% Uranium — which, keep in mind, is far too enriched to be used for any known nuclear power plant — is essentially an thinly veiled threat. “Here’s all this highly enriched uranium, that can not be used for civilian power. But, if we can make 60%, wouldn’t take us long to boost it to 90%. So, still want to argue with us?”
Question to the readership: concerning Trump’s “two weeks”…. Iran’s response was almost immediately “we won’t negotiate until attacks cease.”
How plausible is it Trump just took them at their word? “OK, you say you won’t negotiate. Boom.”