It made sense to await the release of the actual terms of the Memorandum of Understanding. After all, media reports can be wrong, and there was always the possibility that the administration was leaking terrible terms so that when the actual document was released with slightly better terms, it wouldn’t come off so bad.

The MoU has now been signed, hard copy and digitally, and its terms are disclosed.

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above-mentioned and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations, in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of the MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

To the extent the MoU accomplished anything, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for at least 60 days, more or less, which of course was the case before Trump unlawfully attacked Iran. Otherwise, not one of the five purported reasons for the attack were achieved. Indeed, the MoU incorporates the United States’ promise not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. In his press conference, Trump argued in favor of Iran’s keeping ballistic missiles, claiming it’s “common sense.” Earlier, he said that Iran’s enriched uranium wasn’t a big enough deal to worry about.

As for nuclear weapons, the MoU parrots Obama’s JCPOA, using almost the exact same language, but without the mechanism to inspect. As for money, both reparations (which losers pay to victors) and release of seized funds, Iran not only gets it all, but gets far more than it could have dreamed possible. Plus, it will be free to sell its oil on the open market again. It would appear, however, that Trump has no authority to agree to these terms under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) of 2015, not the matters like law and congressional approval are meaningful constraints to Trump.

The theory is that Trump entered into this war, against the advice of American intelligence, under the misguided belief that Iran would quickly fold like Venezuela under the “shock and awe” of American bombs. There was no strategy beyond that. So when it didn’t happen, and then Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and Trump was left without any options, it appears to be the best explanation. In his desperation to find an off-ramp, combined with his belief that he could spin a humiliating defeat into a victory because his base would believe anything he said, no matter how bizarre, conflicted or ridiculous, Trump capitulated.

Whether the war was started to deflect attention from his Epstein taint, or because Israel planned to move forward with or without him, and Trump saw the opportunity to gain a quick military victory and didn’t want to be left behind, may never be known. What is known, now that the MoU has been signed and released, is that Trump surrendered to Iran.