No one has the slightest clue how New York’s bail reform law is working as yet. Neither statistics nor anecdotes* prove anything. It’s far too early to make any determination. If there was a cause and effect connection, it wouldn’t be discernible so quickly. But since we all know correlation does not imply causation, the contention that crime has risen (January over January) since the bail reform law has gone into effect is more likely due to unseasonably warm weather this January than bail reform. And frankly, the new bail law didn’t really change all that much.
While the bail reform law enacted isn’t what I would have done, as one-size-fits-all laws are no more effective for the reformers than their tough-on-crime adversaries, it’s the law, for better or worse. Sure, it was “invented” in the middle of the night by legislators who have little clue how the legal system works and believed in fantasies, but then, it’s also not wildly out of sync with any other approach. Cutting a guy loose ROR who would have gotten $500 bail before just isn’t a big societal deal, except to the guy who can’t afford $500 bail. Continue reading
