When I first started SJ, the Queen of New York law bloggers was Rochester’s Nicole Black, with her foundational blog, Sui Generis. It truly was the backbone of New York blawgs, and Niki was more than just a player. Niki was the Queen.
Over time, Niki’s interests drifted toward technology and its interconnection with the practice of law. She had a unique perspective, given that she went from criminal defense lawyer in the trenches to mommy-track, and then creating a niche to suit her lifestyle and reality upon her return to the outside world. It ain’t easy being a mother, and Niki was determined to find the right place for herself.
Niki has given me some awfully good tech advice over the years, for which I’m very grateful. Even a luddite like me knows that telling a computer it’s stupid isn’t a viable approach. It’s here, it’s queer, get used to it.
Thats why I pay attention to Niki’s prognostications on the future of blogging. She’s got her finger on the pulse of technology, and I can barely find its wrist. And Niki says blogging is dead.
A recent report (http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2010/Generations-2010.aspx) issued by the Internet and American Life Project at the Pew Research Center supports my conclusions. According to the report, for the younger generation, blogging is being replaced by posting on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. In comparison, the older generations, always the last to latch onto new trends, are finally beginning to blog.The statistics regarding blogging from the report indicate that between 2008 and 2010:
- Blogging dropped 2% for 18-33 year olds
- Blogging increased 6% for 34-44 year olds
- Blogging increased 5% for 46-55 year olds
- Blogging increased 4% for 56-64 year olds
- Blogging increased 2% for 65-73 year olds.
These statistics are striking for any number of reasons. First, for the older generations, the increase in blogging is only between 2-6%, which is, all things considered, a fairly small increase for a 2 year time frame. This is so especially given that the use of social networking sites increased between 12-32% for those same age ranges during the same time frame.
Also significant is that blogging is decreasing for the younger generation.
Dead, dead, dead. Niki, of course, is much too nice to just come out and say it. She is a lady, genteel in her ways and circumspect in manner. She would never smack someone across the face and cause them pain. That’s not how Niki rolls.
Niki tries to soften the blow by saying “Legal blogging isn’t dead, it’s just changing,” like the Black Knight said it was only a flesh wound. This could explain the dearth of inter-blawg discussion over the past year and the corresponding rise in nutjob commentary.
Offering a crumb to those who still harbor hopes of a vital blawgosphere, while not wanting to work too hard to participate in it, Niki writes:
However, one trend that I think will become more evident over the next year or so is that individual blogs will decline and group blogs will become the blogging standard. Many individual blogs will continue to succeed, but group blogs will dominate. This is because group blogs provide more varied content, different viewpoints, and draw in more eyes, since the individual bloggers can promote the group’s blog across their own social networks.
For lawyers, the most effective group blogs will consist of blog posts from geographically diverse lawyers focusing on the same practice area, such as criminal law, environmental law or personal injury law.
This, of course, means that the next wave of blawgers, should there be people bold enough to ignore the subtext and try it anyway, can take comfort in knowing that it’s no longer shameful to lack the gumption to go it alone, to take ownership of a blawg and build readership based on one’s own ability and perseverance. Instead, the next-gen blawger will have others, too far away to sue, to blame for its failure.
Yet Niki, a die-hard supporter of the blawgosphere she helped to create, offers this final bit of solace:
And, it’s passion that separates the good blogs from the bad. If you enjoy writing and have a passion for the topic about which you are blogging, your blog, whether it’s a group blog or an individual one, will be a success.
Passion is the key element; if your passion shines through, people of all ages will want to read, discuss and share your blog posts. And, after all, isn’t that the point of blogging in the first place?
The good thing about passion is that anyone can have it. Good writing, insight and an eye for interesting subjects may be very hard to come by, but we can all be passionate about something. And lest you think I’m being snarky here (well, maybe a tiny bit), Niki is right.
If you feel strongly enough about something to take the chance of putting your opinions out there for all to see, and suffering the slings and arrows of those who disagree, then you’ve both accomplished something and deserve the respect of those too gutless or lazy to try it themselves. I may be a bit less sanguine about the prospects of creating a successful blawg, having see way too many arrive and die unseemly deaths, but I certainly respect the effort.
And you know what? There’s nothing wrong with having passion and taking a chance with a blog, even if blogging is dead, dead, dead. The worst than can happen is no one reads it. So what? You’ll survive.
Update: For those who didn’t “get” this post, which means most of you, Seth Godin did.
Bring me stuff that’s dead, please
It would have been nice if he gave Niki credit, but we can’t be piggish about these things.
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The stats are clear… all those Creative Tweeting classes are finally hitting their mark..if it takes more than 140 characters it ain’t wo-
Blogging is down 2% for 18-33 year olds so it’s dead. Well, a 2% drop surely spells death however you slice it.
This is the typical tact of the tech lovers – whatever they love, is important, great, and exploding. Whatever they don’t do much anymore, is not something that is popular anymore. It squares with my “self-fulfilling prophecy” theory of those that permeate the internet with their thoughts on the future – the future is whatever they are doing.
To keep the death of blogs in perspective, remember that these are trendspotting numbers. They’re important to people trying to predict what the hot new thing will be in a few years. That’s Niki Black’s gig, so she needs to know this stuff. The rest of us, however, probably have no reason to care.
And keep in mind that after the spectacular growth of the blogosphere, a little bit of a decline isn’t going to hurt. Even if the world lost 90% of its blogs, there would still be millions of the damned things. That’s more than enough for a thriving community.
On top of that, everything is connected to everything else these days. Social media feeds can link to blogs, blogs can post excerpts to social media sites, Facebook pages have status updates that are starting to look a bit like blog entries, and now all the big blogging engines are starting to sprout social media capabilities.
As long as folks like us want to write our long-form pontifications on the state of the world, there will be someplace we can publish them. Now whether anyone will read them…
Ah, another conspiracy theorist. Perhaps if you considered, given your own uniquely jaded point of view, that the number indicate a change from social media trend (you know, those things you love) to a more settled, mature status, you would feel better?
You do realize (I’m projecting here, but go with me) that Niki didn’t really say that blogs were dead?
2% represents nothing. It only gives someone who wants to use it, a platform to explain why it’s meaningful. Again. When the source of the theory behind the “meaningful” numbers is someone who doesn’t blog that much anymore, it’s irrelevant, except to the source of the theory.
I found the 2% to be meaningful, and I still blog quite a bit. Read in conjunction with the 12-32% increase in other social media use, I take great comfort in all the numbers. It’s lost its trendiness. It’s no longer the “in” thing to do. The deluge of splogs will come to an end. It’s no longer a marketing “must do” thing. The SMGs will demand that people do the next cool thing and leave blogging out of it.
As Windy said, it’s not like there aren’t a ton of blogs already out there, and even if 90% disappear, there will still be plenty left. But they will be real rather than cool. This reflects my theory of Blawgospheric Darwinism, and I’m very happy to see it happening. That’s because I’m an optimist and you are pessimist.
Very astute observation, Mr. Greenfield. I was planning to make that very comment when I saw yours. It seems people are attributing your interpretation of my article to me and then disputing that which I never said.
But, carry on, my friends.
And thanks for the interesting post, Scott. Your take on this issue is, as always, very enlightening and entertaining–the very characteristics that make your blog such a good one!
Oh Scott, you’re so enlightening. I love your blog, and I love you. Love you. Kisses. Smooch…
What’s even better is the number of twits about it, from some surprising twitterers (deep thinkers all), who apparently didn’t grasp the salient detail. It’s turning out to be a far more amusing post than I ever expected.
It’s the love and adoration from guys like you that make it all worthwhile. If it helps, I can bend over?
Brian’s right. I forgot to add hugs and kisses. So consider this comment sealed with a kiss-the French kind.
And, I’m actually pouting as I write this. I’m very disappointed that Brian won’t take me up on my invitation to meet up either this week when I’m in Florida (aka–now) or at the end of the month. I actually think he and I would get along quite swimmingly.
The scary thing is knowing the two of you as I do, it would be magical.
What kind of magical? Like Disney magical?
Magical is different, and special, for each in her own way.
I know she didn’t say it, and I’m pretty sure you didn’t mean it, but I thought the reasons could use some elaboration, since there are plenty of people who say goofy stuff like that all the time. And mean it.
Although, as it happens, I am planning to launch a new multi-author blog…
After seeing some of the mind-numbingly stupid twits about the post (apparently from those who read the title but not the post, a la the twitterers’ attention span), you may be right.
Looking forward to your new multi-author blog. Yawn.
I love the irony of declaring blogging is dead on…wait for it…a blog.
But good blogs just like any good publication will survive so long as we keep reading. When Jobs invents the iPad that you can just plug yourself into, then we’ll be in trouble.
I love the irony of so many bloggers who read the headline, maybe read the post, and still don’t have the slightest clue what this post was all about. And think it declared blogging is dead. Kinda like a litmus test for the hard of thinking.
SHG- Very true. I think your piece and Niki’s piece show that we continue to have a need for blogs as a way of furthering discourse.
Of course, since 1/2 of the blogs now seem devoted to Charlie Sheen’s antics, perhaps our discourse needs more work.
That hasn’t been much of a problem for me, as I shy away from Connecticut blogs.