Jerome Kowalski says it pretty clearly.

While this may be complete heresy, but if I see one more article telling me how important it is for me to grow my practice through social media, I may toss a grenade. If I see one more piece entitled “Seven Important Steps to Take to Improve Your Social Media Presence,” I may toss a brick at my computer screen. If I get invited to one more webinar in which the sponsor promises to deliver the real secrets of social media, I will probably toss my laptop out the window. And if I get one more solicitation from somebody who touts himself or herself as the world’s greatest social media expert (whose most recent prior work experience was working as an accounts payable clerk), I may see if I can lay my hands on one of those Army surplus “Fast and Furious” weapons. I think we are all getting burned out on using social media.

This came in response to  Adrian Dayton’s 253rd post pimping the same simplistic nonsense about social media. I can’t blame him, as people who have  never read Kafka seem to think he’s insightful.  And Adrian is, to the extent of knowing that there will always be a lawyer so clueless that they need a book to learn how to use twitter. 

I predict that 2012 will be the year this mindset begins to change.

This prediction comes out of a survey by Lexis/Nexis, who is in the business of selling social media platforms, that 94% of the AmLaw200 “plan to use blogs in their social media marketing initiatives.”  

Bob Ambrogi doesn’t buy that it will happen, having been around long enough to watch the exuberance of social media fizzle quickly when lawyers learn it takes some effort to make something decent and fails to live up to the inflated fantasies promoted by those who try to eke out a living as social media gurus.

They even sucked in the Wall Street Journal Law Blog, which shows so little grasp of the subject that it regurgitates the silliest stuff spouted by the sophists.  Ambrogi coins the phrase “the more the merrier,” suggesting that while the “cream will rise to the top,” lest any trite expression go unused.

But what’s it mean for the rest of us — those who already have blogs and those who regularly read blogs?

Well, on one hand, I suspect it’s much ado about nothing. Despite their best-laid plans, I doubt all the firms that say they’ll launch blogs really will. And of those that do launch blogs, no doubt a good number will be abandoned or ignored, as seems to happen with many blogs.

On the other hand, I have no doubt that many new legal blogs will continue to launch and that a fair number of them will be worth reading. The more the merrier, I say. Like cream, good blogs rise to the top. Even if we have a flood of blogs, there will be those that stand out and those that do not.

Kevin O’Keefe, who is wise enough to realize that his LexBlog enterprise can’t survive if the blogosphere collapses under the weight of a million turds, writes:

Even more importantly, LexBlog needs to up its game in helping the 8,000 lawyers on our network know what it means to blog well. To offer value. To engage others. To understand blogging is not marketing per se, but a relationship and reputation enhancer.

Otherwise, LexBlog will not only be letting its clients and network members down, but polluting the net and legal dialogue with law blogs offering little value that will come and go.

Remember the survey that started this?  It didn’t suggest that law firms wanted to become part of the blawgosphere, join in the conversation, add to a body of peer reviewed knowledge.  The survey said:

94% of the AmLaw 200 law firms (200 largest law firms) plan to use blogs in their social media marketing initiatives.

The flaw seems obvious to me, though it’s likely because I’ve been around the blawgosphere, as well as the practice of law, for a while.  I read the gurus top ten lists the first few thousand times they posted them, learning that I do everything wrong when it comes to making rain, becoming a thought leader, impressing hotties and becoming a social media rock star.  Still, I’m here, having survived for almost five years now.  I’m no guru, but I am a fairly good observer.  And the only horse I have in this race is to see a quality blawgosphere survive.

If the purpose is marketing, don’t bother.  The return isn’t there. You will not find wealth and prestige blawging.  To the extent the gurus claim otherwise, there is a reason why their days are spent telling others how to market on social media rather than raking in the dough from their law practices.

The blawgosphere can’t handle a million blawgs.  If you are truly dedicated to the blawgosphere, you skim maybe 50 blawgs for something interesting.  That’s a lot, and most do far less.  Imagine a small town with 1000 daily papers. Even if they’re all brilliant, no one can read them all.  And if 990 of them are PennySavers, there will be a lot of untouched paper to recycle.

In 2011, the blawgosphere atrophied.  New blawgers, molded by the gurus, isolated themselves so no one knew they existed, paying good money for SEO that brought them all the way to page 7 on Google, right behind the Uggs advertisements.  There were a few great new entrants, but the vast majority were a waste of time, money and effort. No one mourned their death.

A long time ago, I wrote about Blawgospheric Darwinism.  It remains true.  The only real question arising from the anticipated deluge is whether it will crush the blawgosphere under a pile of crap.  Will every reader, every lawyer, feel like Jerome Kowalski, being sick and disgusted with the whole thing?

If the blawgosphere is turned into a massive and fruitless marketing initiative by over-moneyed and under-mindful law firms, big, small or solo, it’s conceivable that the noise will drown out the signal, turning off those who might otherwise be inclined to spend some time here.  Nobody wants a channel showing only commercials.

There is room for new blawgs. There will always be room for great blawgs, assuming the blawgosphere isn’t crushed under a pile of crap.  Few have the will and desire to produce a great blawg.  Fewer still will resist the effort to turn what they have into a marketing initiative.  You won’t make it. You will waste your time, effort and money.

I predict there will be 25 new blawgs in 2012 that will capture the interest and attention of the blawgosphere, will garner a meaningful readership and will contribute to a thriving blawgospheric community.  I predict yours won’t be one of them. I predict you will fail. I predict you will crash and burn.  And none of them will generate enough business to make a single blawg post worth your while.

Prove me wrong.  If you can’t, find a better way to spend your time and money. Social media isn’t going to change your life.

This is my gift to those of you who, like Kowalski, hear all the noise, and for those of you who, unlike Kowalski, think they’re missing some magic secret to vast wealth and prestige in social media.  Save yourselves before the deluge.