Sentence inflation is the sort of thing one notices. When I started defending people accused of crimes, a first-time gun possession would get probation. As fear rose during the crack epidemic, the sentence required a mandatory minimum of a year. Under New York law, it now has a mandatory minimum of 3½ years. So no time to serious time all in my lifetime.
The theory was based on a belief that made complete sense to the public, and was easily played by lawmakers who capitalized on public fears: the longer the sentence, the less likely someone would commit the crime. The problem with the theory was twofold: first, people don’t really consider sentence when deciding to commit crimes. They don’t know what the sentences are, even though people believe that people inclined to commit crimes are somehow knowledgeable about such things. They’re not. In fact, they’re often not the brightest folks around. Continue reading
